“Is Adin going to be drafted?” asked my 14 year-old son Kyrian on hearing the news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Adin is 18 and has registered, by sexist mandate [1], for selected service and, clearly, my younger son is concerned. He is not an overtly emotional young man, so for him to express any concern shows a profound and deep psychological worry. In addition to Covid, now my sons are contending with another existential crises: a possible World War.
How do I answer? Do I deny the possibility, dismiss his concern as impossible? How do you assuage the fears of a teenager growing increasingly aware of the world he is destined to inherit responsibility for?
I had assumed Putin would use propagandist justification to secure the easterly land route to the Crimea but not risk a protracted war with Ukraine. I had assumed his moves would be tactical, dispassionate and rational. I was wrong. He invaded. Putin is a man of ideas. Worse, could he be religiously inspired? Now I can only hope that the early signs of a robust defense by Ukraine will make this invasion amazingly costly. I can only hope that Putin’s blitzkrieg dreams are dashed by Ukraine’s resolve and Stinger missiles. I can only hope China looks at the demonstrably pathetic capabilities of Russia: It is struggling to invade a former territory with significantly less military capability and is immediately adjacent with flat terrain. I hope the world remembers Desert Storm, wherein the United States demolished the 4th largest army in the world in 100 hours thousands of miles from our shores. And we did that 30 years ago. I can only hope that gives China pause on its expansionist dreams for Taiwan. I can only hope that the world remembers that despite the internal discord and insipid babble current within the United States, our collective belief in the right of self-determination will stiffen our resolve to fight for those principles. I can only hope everyone ignores Trump’s inane rhetoric. I can only hope the incompetence of the presidency since Ronald Reagan hasn’t destroyed that which is best in America: the collective dream in its exceptionalism and its determination to have liberty prevail. I can only hope America still believes in itself.
Of course in our open society the merits of our imperfect past are inveighed and academics flog our performance. But they always fail to contrast it against the non-existent alternatives. If not America, then who? What other hegemonic power would you rather dictate world affairs? There is no alternative worth serious consideration. For all America’s sins (look closely at the etymology of that word!) we are the last best hope. America remains the bulwark against naked aggression. Thus we are constantly castigated as meddlesome and self-interested. Duh. We protect American interests first and ideals second. Sorry for the human foibles of self-interested leaders. When has it been otherwise?
What we are witnessing with Russia’s invasion is a test of wills. Will the United States and its allies take an active roll in the defense of Ukraine? Will we do more than impose economic sanctions? After all, we already let Crimea fall… Putin is testing his limits like a petulant teenager who needs a firm reminder that there are boundaries. I fear we are failing this historical test. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, true, so we do not have legal justification to place troops in harms way. Putin is playing this dangerously because he has less to lose. And that frightens me. Putin is willing to sacrifice Russians for whatever twisted vision he embraces. I can only hope that the Russian public will protest and bristle sufficiently to break the Putin narrative and expose it for the weak-tea it is. (Alas, polling suggests otherwise…)
I can only hope that Russian troops stopped shelling and couldn’t establish air superiority for lack of ammunition and expertise. I want to believe that we are witnessing the actual – and inferior – capabilities of the Russian military. I can only hope that our constant out-pacing the world on military spending keeps us the uncontested dominant force on the globe. I can only hope every other country remembers how easily the United States out-produced the entire world during WW2.
I can only hope that this fracas north of the Bosphorus doesn’t lead to a open and broad conflict of ideology.[2]
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UPDATES
4.15.22 The Moskva sinks. BBC report
4.11.22 Who could overthrow Putin? Foreign Affairs
3.20.23 Open letter to Jeffrey Sachs on his position regarding Russian war on Ukraine, lest we forget that there are apologists – and they need to be corrected
[1] I am so tired of the flaccid gender and race politics that are destroying the unity of vision and the excellence of America. All the forced equity of outcome evaporates when one looks at the historical expendability of males. Until you are forced to sign up for conscription, choke on your gender issues – Israel got that right.
[2] The New Statesman published this excellent interview with Sergey Karaganov, a former advisor to the Kremlin, on what Putin wants and thoughts on the fate of liberalism.
An additional aside – Survival of the Weakest: Why the West Rules (Levine, D. and Salvatore Modica, 2001).
“We study a model of institutions that evolve through conflict. We find that one of three
configurations can emerge: an extractive hegemony, a balance of power between extractive societies or a balance of power between inclusive societies – the latter being most conducive to innovation. As extractive societies are assumed to have an advantage in head to head confrontations we refer to this latter possibility as the survival of the weakest. Our contention is that the reason that the West rules can be traced back to two events both taking place in China: the invention of the cannon, which made possible the survival of the weakest in Europe; and the arrival of Genghis Khan, which led to the survival of the strongest in China.”
The article adds layers of equations to academically justify the historical (empirical) conclusions.
Protective Arts 
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